Asian Development Bank (ADB) has slightly raised its economic growth forecast for developing Asia and the Pacific in 2024, projecting a growth of 5.0%, up from the previous estimate of 4.9%. This positive adjustment is attributed to the combination of increasing regional exports and resilient domestic demand. The growth outlook for the following year remains steady at 4.9%.
The latest edition of the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) indicates that inflation is expected to decrease to 2.9% this year due to the softening of global food prices and the lasting impact of higher interest rates. The region’s economic growth, which was initially driven by domestic demand during the post-pandemic recovery, is now benefiting from a surge in exports. Strong global demand for electronics, especially semiconductors used in advanced technology and artificial intelligence applications, is bolstering exports from various Asian economies.
Despite the overall moderation of inflation in the region, some economies in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific continue to experience elevated price pressures, particularly in the food sector. Factors such as adverse weather conditions and food export limitations contribute to persistent food inflation in these regions.
As for individual economies, the growth forecast for China’s economy remains at 4.8% this year. The country’s recovery in services consumption, robust exports, and industrial activities are supporting this expansion, amid ongoing challenges in the property sector. India, the fastest-growing economy in the region, maintains a growth projection of 7.0% for fiscal year 2024, driven by a strong industrial sector, agricultural rebound, and robust investment demand.
In Southeast Asia, the growth forecast for this year stands at 4.6%, reflecting improvements in both domestic and external demand. Additionally, the Caucasus and Central Asia region see an upward revision in the growth outlook to 4.5%, driven by stronger-than-expected growth in countries like Azerbaijan and the Kyrgyz Republic. The Pacific region, particularly Papua New Guinea, is expected to experience a growth rate of 3.3% in 2024, supported by tourism, infrastructure development, and an uptick in mining activity.
Overall, ADB’s revised economic growth projections for developing Asia and the Pacific indicate a steady pace of recovery, with strong export performance and resilient domestic demand driving the region’s progress. Policymakers are advised to remain vigilant of potential risks such as election uncertainties, interest rate decisions, and geopolitical tensions that could impact the economic outlook moving forward.
