The US Army is seeking assistance from artificial intelligence (AI) to accurately predict the actions of its adversaries minutes or even hours before they occur. The Army’s objective is to develop a system that can efficiently analyze vast amounts of data, surpassing human capability, in order to forecast enemy movements and adapt predictions as tactics change.
Dubbed Real-Time Threat Forecasting, the project calls for continuous, real-time predictive visualization of potential threat scenarios within short timeframes. The initiative emphasizes the need for AI-based technology that can run on standard laptops and leverage emerging AI and machine learning capabilities.
This endeavor is driven by concerns that human intelligence analysts may struggle to keep up with the increasing complexity of modern warfare. The Army envisions a hyperactive battlefield characterized by robotics, autonomous systems, advanced munitions, distributed Soldier-Machine Teams, and self-organizing intelligence networks.
In order to survive and succeed in such an environment, armies must constantly adapt. The Army cites recent conflicts to demonstrate the unpredictable nature of warfare. The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War saw Armenia’s traditional weaponry fail against Azerbaijan’s use of advanced drones, while the ongoing war in Ukraine has witnessed continuous evolution in drone technology and tactics.
Consequently, the US cannot rely on enemies adhering to predictable patterns. Military intelligence cannot assume that adversaries will behave according to a predefined playbook. Meanwhile, intelligence officers are inundated with a deluge of global intelligence from various sources, including drones, resulting in an overwhelming amount of data to sift through without the aid of AI.
A report by the Royal United Services Institute think tank warned of the insufficient capacity of current military operations, highlighting the need for AI to perform critical tasks efficiently.
Interestingly, the US Army sees video game technologies as integral to the predictive system. The desired output would be presented through continuously updated 3D visualizations, allowing analysts to simulate potential enemy scenarios within short timeframes. Leveraging commercially available video games is advantageous due to their user-friendly interfaces and quick assimilation by gaming communities.
Automating human staff officers has been a concept discussed for years, with some routine tasks potentially being delegated to machines. However, challenges related to accessing necessary data may complicate implementation, according to the RUSI report. Furthermore, the question of whether the human mind can cope with the demands of modern warfare remains unanswered. While AI may assist in predicting enemy tactics, it may also contribute to devising friendly strategies.
