U.S.-China Tensions Over Taiwan Threaten Bilateral Ties in 2024, Analysts Warn
Despite some candid and constructive dialogue at the Xi-Biden summit in November, U.S.-China ties remained in a prolonged state of crisis at the end of 2023. Analysts have warned that tensions over democratic Taiwan are likely to escalate in 2024, further straining the bilateral relationship. The recent resumption of military-to-military contacts and discussions on fentanyl exports and scientific cooperation did not significantly improve relations between the two rivals, according to President Joe Biden.
The relationship between the United States and China has been characterized by periods of detente followed by further retreat, creating a state of crisis that shows no signs of abating. China’s threats to force unification on Taiwan and its military activities in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait continue to loom large over bilateral ties. With neither side willing to make concessions, compromise seems unlikely in the foreseeable future.
Sam Zhao, a professor of international relations at the University of Denver, suggests that cooperation on various fronts such as climate change, transnational crime, artificial intelligence, and disease control and prevention could help stabilize bilateral ties. However, these efforts may not be sufficient to counterbalance the underlying tensions caused by China’s ambitions regarding Taiwan.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping declared in his New Year message that the merger of Taiwan and China is inevitable, dismissing the wishes of Taiwan’s 23 million people who have consistently shown no desire to be ruled by the Chinese Communist Party. Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen, on the other hand, emphasized the importance of democratic decision-making in determining the island’s future.
The outcome of Taiwan’s presidential and parliamentary elections on January 13, 2024, could have a significant impact on U.S.-China relations. If Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party wins, China is likely to increase pressure on Taiwan through military activities, economic sanctions, and political and diplomatic pressure. The response of the United States will be crucial in showing support for Taiwan and alleviating the pressure.
The U.S. presidential election in November 2024 will also play a role in shaping the future direction of U.S.-China relations. A victory for opposition candidate Lai Ching-te in Taiwan, combined with a Trump victory in the United States, could lead to instability. Taiwanese leaders, regardless of party affiliation, will be cautious in approaching Beijing due to domestic political considerations.
In Washington, there is a growing bipartisan consensus on the threat posed by China’s overseas activities to democracies. This is likely to result in increased political pressure on the U.S.-China relationship from Capitol Hill. With the U.S. presidential campaign on the horizon, bipartisan pressure is expected to intensify, which could further complicate the already strained bilateral ties.
The window of opportunity for improving U.S.-China relations, even if Xi and Biden hold a second summit in November 2024, will be limited. While there may be diplomatic exchanges and discussions, the underlying tensions are unlikely to be resolved.
It remains to be seen whether Beijing can distinguish between campaign rhetoric and actual U.S. policy. Lily McElwee of the Center for Strategic and International Studies points out that China’s failure to make this distinction could exacerbate the already complex relationship between the two countries.
The forthcoming year is likely to see continued tensions between the United States and China, with the Taiwan issue remaining a significant flashpoint. The outcome of elections in Taiwan and the United States, as well as the actions and reactions of both sides, will shape the trajectory of U.S.-China relations. As analysts warn, the possibility of a significant improvement in bilateral ties seems slim, while the risk of further deterioration remains high.
