The United States vs Itself: US Presidential Election Tops List of Global Risks for 2024
The upcoming US presidential election in 2024 has been identified as the number one risk to the world, regardless of who emerges as the winner. This revelation comes from the annual report released by the Eurasia Group, a prominent political risk consultancy firm. Titled The United States vs Itself, the report highlights the potential consequences of a deeply divided nation.
The report emphasizes that the US presidential election has the potential to worsen the political divisions within the country, pushing American democracy to its limits in a way not seen in 150 years. This, in turn, could undermine the credibility of the United States on the global stage. The political system in the US is currently characterized by extreme polarization, with public trust in core institutions such as Congress, the judiciary, and the media at historic lows.
One of the concerns raised in the report revolves around former President Donald Trump and his likely Republican rival, President Joe Biden. Trump is facing multiple felony charges, including those related to his actions while in office and his attempts to overturn the 2020 election results. The report suggests that Trump, fearing the possibility of prosecution, will utilize his online presence, control over the Republican Party, and friendly media in an effort to delegitimize both the legal system and the integrity of the election. This, according to the Eurasia Group, will put pressure on Republican officials to manage the elections in a way that benefits Trump.
The report also predicts that if Trump were to win the election, it could potentially mark the end of democracy as the US currently knows it. On the other hand, if Biden were to emerge victorious, Trump is expected to contest the results and refuse to accept defeat, using every resource at his disposal. Regardless of the outcome, the report concludes that the 2024 election will only exacerbate existing divisions within the country, further damaging its social fabric, political institutions, and international standing.
Looking beyond the presidential election, the Eurasia Group foresees a challenging year in 2024, characterized by three dominant global conflicts, or wars: Russia versus Ukraine, Israel versus Hamas, and the United States versus itself. The second and third risks on the list pertain to an escalation of the war in the Middle East and the partitioning of Ukraine by Russia, respectively. Additionally, the report highlights the potential risks associated with ungoverned artificial intelligence.
The Eurasia Group, headquartered in New York, provides political risk analysis and consulting services to help investors and businesspeople understand the impact of politics on foreign markets. Their annual report serves as a valuable tool for assessing the major risks and challenges that lie ahead.
In conclusion, the United States’ upcoming presidential election in 2024 is poised to be the greatest global risk, irrespective of the eventual winner. The divided nature of American society, coupled with declining trust in key institutions, will be put to the test, potentially causing significant consequences for US democracy and the nation’s standing in the world.
