Renowned Author Challenges Notion of Unrivaled Innovation in Our Era
Vaclav Smil, a prominent author hailed for his valuable perspectives on a wide range of subjects, has released his latest book titled Invention and Innovation: A Brief History of Hype and Failure. In this thought-provoking work, Smil challenges the prevailing belief that we are currently living in an era of unrivaled innovation. Drawing on his extensive analysis of various fields, including agriculture, transportation, and pharmaceuticals, he presents a compelling case that our current era may not be as innovative as commonly assumed. Smil suggests that we are witnessing unmistakable signs of technical stagnation and slowing advancements.
This perspective may seem counterintuitive at a time when artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning are rapidly advancing. However, Smil argues that AI researchers have merely scratched the surface, deploying rudimentary analytical techniques to uncover patterns and pathways that are not easily discernible by our senses. While impressive achievements have been made in certain areas, such as large language models, Smil contends that these advancements only represent progress on relatively easy tasks.
According to Smil, the period between 1867 and 1914 stood as the only true period of explosive innovation in the past 150 years. During those years, inventors revolutionized various industries by creating internal combustion engines, electric lights, the telephone, steel production methods, and more. Remarkable breakthroughs were also made in the fields of medicine, agriculture, and nutrition.
Contrary to this period of impressive innovation, Smil describes the subsequent years as lackluster, with countless breakthroughs that are not. One notable example he highlights is leaded gasoline, which greatly improved the performance of internal combustion engines but had devastating cognitive effects and led to premature deaths.
While Smil acknowledges the exponential growth of computing power in recent decades, he argues that this growth has not been matched in other aspects of our lives. He cautions against assuming that advancements in other areas will occur as rapidly as computing power has.
However, there are differing opinions on Smil’s analysis. Some experts, like Bill Gates, acknowledge the exponential growth in computing power but maintain that recent advancements in AI, particularly in large language models, have been surprising. These experts predict that machines will soon possess human-like reasoning capabilities, enabling significant progress in domains such as disease cure, education personalization, and clean energy development.
Furthermore, Smil’s analysis may overlook the convergence of multiple technologies driving innovation today. Observing the compounding effects of advancements in areas such as AI, digital simulations, storage capacity, mobile communications, and gene sequencing, it becomes clear that breakthroughs can arise from the combined progress in these fields.
Another point of contention arises when considering green technologies. Smil expresses skepticism towards certain green approaches, such as sodium-cooled nuclear fission reactors. However, there are companies like TerraPower, backed by Bill Gates, that have made significant strides in designing safe, economically viable sodium-cooled reactors. These reactors hold the potential to aid in achieving net-zero carbon emissions.
Vaclav Smil’s work is known to provoke thoughts and challenge prevailing narratives, even if it occasionally attracts disagreement. With his latest book, Invention and Innovation: A Brief History of Hype and Failure, Smil contributes to the ongoing discourse on the level of innovation in our era. While some view our current era as stagnant, others point to advancements in AI and the convergence of technologies as evidence of ongoing progress. As the debate continues, it remains crucial to objectively assess the complexities and nuances surrounding the concept of innovation in our modern world.
