AI May Not Have as Severe Impact on Jobs, New Study Suggests
A recent study conducted by MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL) challenges the notion that artificial intelligence (AI) will lead to significant job loss. While multiple reports have sounded the alarm regarding AI’s impact on employment, the study indicates that the damage may not be as severe as anticipated.
The researchers at CSAIL examined whether AI could perform tasks more efficiently than humans and if it would be cost-effective for businesses to replace human labor with AI. Contrary to previous estimates, the study found that computer vision AI currently has the capability to automate only 1.6% of worker wages in the US economy, excluding agriculture. Furthermore, it revealed that just 23% of those wages, equivalent to 0.4% of the entire economy, would be cheaper to automate compared to hiring human workers at current costs.
These findings contradict estimations made by Goldman Sachs, which suggested that AI could automate 25% of the labor market within the next few years. Similarly, a report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas claimed that AI is already replacing numerous workers. However, the MIT study takes a different approach by assessing the feasibility of AI performing specific roles and the likelihood of businesses truly replacing workers with AI technology.
Neil Thompson, a research scientist at MIT CSAIL and co-author of the study, emphasizes that while there is considerable potential for AI to automate tasks, many of these tasks are not yet economically attractive for automation. Thompson suggests that the anticipated disruption caused by AI may be slower and less dramatic than previously thought.
It is important to note that the study has its limitations. It solely focuses on jobs that require visual analysis, such as inspecting products for quality. The researchers did not investigate the potential impact of text- and image-generating models on workers and the economy, as this will be explored in future studies. Furthermore, the study does not consider cases where AI can augment human labor or create entirely new tasks and jobs. The analysis also does not account for all possible cost savings from pre-trained AI models.
While the study’s findings provide a more optimistic outlook regarding the impact of AI on jobs, the debate surrounding this topic continues. The European Commission reportedly plans to establish AI Factories to boost the use of generative AI in strategic sectors. EU executives will present a strategic framework on AI use by the end of January, aiming to address the regulatory challenges posed by this technology.
As countries grapple with the regulation of AI, the Bletchley Declaration was signed last year, highlighting the need for international collaboration to ensure the safe and responsible development and deployment of AI for the benefit of the global community.
In conclusion, the study from MIT’s CSAIL suggests that the impact of AI on jobs may not be as dire as previously forecasted. While there is potential for AI to automate certain tasks, the majority of jobs identified as at risk of displacement are currently not economically beneficial to automate. The debate around AI’s influence on employment continues, and further research is needed to fully understand its implications.
