IAEA Nuclear Energy Forecast Predicts Global Capacity to Double by 2050
According to the latest International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Nuclear energy forecast, the global nuclear capacity is set to double by 2050. This upward revision of projections is a response to Europe’s need for reliable energy sources as it looks to reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas.
The IAEA, in its official forecast, has increased its 2050 projections by about 12% for both the low-medium and high cases. Compared to the 2022 edition, the low case projections indicate a modest increase in world nuclear capacity from 371 GW(e) to 458 GW(e). In the high case scenario, the capacity is expected to more than double to 890 GW(e) by 2050.
The revised outlook for nuclear power development comes after the IAEA revised its projections for the first time since the Fukushima Daiichi plant accident in Japan in 2011. The high case projections to 2050 have now increased by 178 GW(e), representing a 24% increase compared to the previous outlook.
One of the key drivers for maintaining and expanding the use of nuclear power is the mitigation of climate change. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), nuclear power has already avoided approximately 70 gigatonnes of CO2 emissions over the past 50 years, equivalent to three full years of global emissions reduction.
The widespread use of fossil fuels remains a significant challenge in the fight against climate change. Currently, about 74% of final energy consumption comes from fossil fuels, with an additional 60% of electricity generated from the same source. This reliance on fossil fuels for transportation and energy production results in significant air pollution, causing approximately 4 million deaths per year. Indoor air pollution for cooking and heating in the developing world also leads to another 3 million deaths.
It is important to note that the IAEA’s 2050 energy forecast does not account for the potential increase in energy demand to support massive AI data centers. With regular data centers and bitcoin mining already accounting for around 20% of North American electricity usage, the rise of AI technology could multiply electricity needs by 2050 if it proves to be as profitable and valuable as anticipated.
As of the end of 2022, there were 411 operational nuclear power reactors worldwide, with a total net installed power capacity of 371 GW(e). Additionally, there were 58 reactors under construction with a capacity of 59.3 GW(e), and 27 reactors in suspended operation with a capacity of 22.8 GW(e). Six new reactors were connected to the grid, while five reactors were retired during the same time period. Construction started on eight new reactors expected to add a total capacity of 9.3 GW(e).
In terms of electricity production, nuclear power accounted for 9.2% of the total in 2022, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous year. However, total electricity production from all energy sources increased by about 2%, and nuclear power production slightly decreased to 2,545 TW∙h.
The reduction in global electricity demand observed in 2020, attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic, was the largest annual decline since the mid-20th century. However, in 2022, both global electricity consumption and total energy consumption rebounded, surpassing 2019 levels.
In conclusion, the IAEA’s nuclear energy forecast suggests a significant increase in global nuclear capacity by 2050, with the capacity potentially doubling compared to the current figure. While nuclear power plays a crucial role in mitigating climate change, the forecast does not consider the potential spike in energy demand driven by AI technology. Nevertheless, nuclear power remains a viable option for countries seeking reliable and sustainable energy sources amidst the need to reduce reliance on fossil fuels.
