Over 50% of jobs driving the US economy could be significantly impacted by artificial intelligence (AI) in the next decade, according to a study conducted by tech solutions corporation Cognizant and Oxford Economics. The study focused on the economic effects of generative AI and found that while it could inject up to $1 trillion into the US economy over the next decade, it also poses potential challenges for the workforce.
The study utilized a model to simulate three levels of AI adoption in businesses: low, middle, and high. It projected that by 2023, around 13% of companies will be using AI, rising to almost 50% within 10 years. The model assessed the impact of AI on approximately 1,000 jobs that involve tasks such as content generation, market analysis, image generation, reports, and emails.
According to the model, AI automation could result in a 9% job loss for the US workforce in the next 10 years. Furthermore, around 1% of workers may struggle to find new employment as their current skill sets may not be well-suited for an AI-dominated workforce.
This study reinforces previous findings that have predicted significant disruptions in the job market due to AI. A Goldman Sachs report estimated that over 300 million jobs worldwide could be affected, while a McKinsey report suggested that at least 12 million Americans would need to find new jobs by 2030.
However, the research also highlights the positive impact of AI adoption on the US economy. The study projects that US productivity could grow by 1.7% to 3.5% over the next 10 years, leading to an increase in the US GDP by $477 billion to $1 trillion annually.
Adrian Cooper, CEO of Oxford Economics, emphasized the transformative potential of AI on the US economy and urged leaders to adapt swiftly to harness its benefits.
The authors of the study noted that AI will affect the workforce differently than past technological advancements by targeting knowledge work rather than manual labor jobs. Occupations such as credit analysis, computer programming, web development, database administration, and graphic design may see a significant proportion of their important tasks replaced by AI.
The impact of AI automation even extends to CEOs, with the study suggesting that approximately 25% of their tasks could be automated, including reviewing reports, conducting competitive assessments, and making strategic decisions.
However, the authors of the study also view this paradigm shift as an opportunity for skills rethinking and employee development. They emphasize the importance of reskilling programs in adapting to an AI-driven workforce and recommend allocating time for training and education.
While the study sheds light on the potential challenges posed by AI adoption, it also highlights the need for strategic reskilling initiatives and the positive economic impact that AI can bring. As AI becomes more prevalent, new employee skills in areas like business strategy and AI management will be in demand, marking a new phase of employee development and business strategy.
Disclaimer: This article is a summary of the original study conducted by Cognizant and Oxford Economics on the economic impacts of generative AI. For more details, please refer to the original research publication.
