China and the United States have returned to the negotiating table, signaling a potential thaw in their strained relations. However, while diplomatic discussions have resumed, it remains uncertain whether substantial agreements can be reached. Recent meetings between China’s top diplomat in Bangkok and President Biden’s national security adviser addressed issues concerning North Korea and Iran. Additionally, officials in Beijing have restarted talks on controlling the flow of fentanyl to the United States.
The resumption of these diplomatic engagements reflects a tentative detente reached between President Biden and President Xi during a summit near San Francisco in November. However, the nature of the China-US relationship remains a central challenge. The Biden administration views the relationship as one of strategic competition, highlighting the importance of these meetings in preventing the rivalry from escalating into a conflict. Chinese officials, on the other hand, reject this framing and advocate for the San Francisco Vision, which promotes stabilizing relations and setting aside competitive dynamics.
The differing rhetoric highlights the fragility of the ongoing reset, especially during an election year where President Biden faces pressure to take a tough stance on China. Concerns have also risen over Chinese hackers’ escalating plans to infiltrate US infrastructure in the event of a conflict, as warned by the Federal Bureau of Investigation.
One tangible outcome from the San Francisco summit is the resumption of talks on fentanyl in Beijing. China, being a primary source of chemicals used in fentanyl production, has faced US efforts to restrict exports of these precursor chemicals. To further progress in the talks, Washington agreed in November to lift sanctions on a forensics institute run by China’s Ministry of Public Security that was previously blacklisted for alleged complicity in abuses against ethnic minorities.
China has also taken steps to ease tensions in other areas. Talks between the two countries’ militaries have resumed, addressing concerns about accidental conflicts in contested regions such as the East China Sea and South China Sea. Additionally, discussions on mitigating risks associated with artificial intelligence technology are anticipated. These diplomatic efforts aim to present China as a responsible global player contributing to the stabilization of international relations.
To achieve a greater level of cooperation, China’s interests in negotiating with the United States are emphasized. Foreign Minister Wang Yi has called for mutual respect, stressing that the nations should treat each other as equals rather than in a condescending manner. China’s propaganda outlets have also highlighted the importance of the United States appreciating China’s goodwill. However, China maintains its independent stance, emphasizing reciprocity in negotiations.
While the detente between China and the United States may serve as a strategic pause, allowing China to address domestic economic challenges, it should not be mistaken for a softening of China’s resolve on core interests. President Xi can now focus on economic issues without compromising on non-negotiable matters, such as Taiwan and the Communist Party’s rule.
In summary, the reengagement between China and the United States in diplomatic discussions represents a tentative detente reached between the two global powers. However, the prospects for substantial agreements remain uncertain, given the differing interpretations of the nature of the relationship and the potential challenges they face. Despite this, both sides are making efforts to ease tensions and portray themselves as responsible global players. The future of the China-US relationship will depend on their ability to navigate through these frictions and find common ground.
