The 149th running of the Kentucky Derby is set to take place on Saturday, May 6, with 19 horses vying for the most prestigious horse race title. There has been an increasing popularity in artificial intelligence (AI) chatbots such as ChatGPT, prompting TwinSpires to understand their application in the Kentucky Derby. ChatGPT cannot predict the exact winner of the sporting event, but it can predict the probability of the outcomes by analyzing past data. TwinSpires, an online horse betting platform owned by Churchill Downs Inc., was tasked with reviewing ChatGPT’s predictions for previous races to forecast a winner of the 2023 Kentucky Derby.
The data used for predictions includes performance in graded stakes races, Brisnet speed figures, and details about trainers, jockeys, and post positions. ChatGPT simulated the 2005 Kentucky Derby 1,000 times and predicted that Bellamy Road would have the most likelihood of winning the race. Though Bellamy Road was the favorite for the race, it finished in seventh place and the 50-to-1 long shot, Giacomo, won the race. Afleet Alex, with a 4.5-1 favorite, was predicted to have a strong showing as well, but ultimately finished third in the race.
The Sports Daily used their own data on the 2023 race, including betting odds, to see if ChatGPT could forecast the winner. The AI had Forte at the finish line with Tapi Trice and Angel of Empire following close behind. Forte currently has the highest betting odds at +250 to +300. Evidently, these predictions cannot be 100% accurate given the numerous possible outcomes of a race, but it does narrow potential winners down.
Churchill Downs Inc (NASDAQ:CHDN) owns both TwinSpires and its namesake racetrack in which the Kentucky Derby will be taking place this Saturday. It is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky and operates as a thoroughbred horse racing, gaming and online entertainment company. They host a number of different racing events and activities, such as the Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Oaks, the Breeders’ Cup, Churchill Downs Summer and Fall meets, and the TwinSpires Horse Racing Service. The company, first incorporated in 1937, brings in revenues from both admission tickets and sponsorship deals.
David Evans, editor of The Sports Daily, edited ChatGPT’s prediction on the 2023 race. He assumed the role of feeding the data to the artificial intelligence and analyzing the outcomes. The fact that the two top horses were scratched ahead of the race affects the accuracy of predicting the winner of the 2023 Kentucky Derby. Benzinga’s resident horse-racing expert Joel Elconin provided his own analysis to select a winner based on the existing data.
So while ChatGPT had some success in predicting performance on the racetrack, we’ll have to watch the race to find out who the lucky winner of the 149th Kentucky Derby will be.
