A new AI system called EVEscape has been developed by researchers at Harvard Medical School and the University of Oxford to predict future alterations and mutations in viruses, including COVID-19. The system, which was detailed in a Nature article on October 11, 2021, has the potential to forecast the emergence of new COVID-19 variants and mutations, as well as changes in other viruses like the flu and HIV.
The creators of EVEscape believe that if the system had been available at the start of the pandemic, it would have accurately predicted the most frequent mutations and concerning variants of COVID-19. The system has been shown to make surprisingly accurate predictions, according to the study co-lead authors Sarah Gurev, Nikki Thadani, and Pascal Notin.
Initially developed in 2020 as EVE (evolutionary model of variant effect) to predict disease-causing genetic mutations in humans, the researchers realized that the technology could also be applied to viruses like COVID-19. Thus, EVEscape was born.
Currently, EVEscape is being used to evaluate new and emerging COVID-19 variants. The tool assigns a score to each variant reported in a global COVID-19 sequence database, indicating the likelihood of the variant evading immunity gained from previous infection or vaccination. With thousands of new COVID-19 strains emerging each month, EVEscape provides valuable insights for pandemic planning.
In its latest report, EVEscape highlights several variants as particularly concerning. This information could potentially aid in the development of tailored vaccines and therapies to combat the evolving virus.
However, even with advanced tools like EVEscape, it is impossible to predict with absolute certainty which COVID-19 variants will be dominant in the future. This poses challenges for vaccine manufacturers as they strive to keep up with the continually evolving virus.
Nevertheless, systems like EVEscape have the potential to assist vaccine manufacturers in designing variant-proof vaccines by identifying target regions of the virus unlikely to mutate in the future, unlike the spike protein of the COVID-19 virus, which constantly undergoes changes.
Furthermore, EVEscape can also be used to predict immune escape for other viruses with pandemic potential, such as Lassa and Nipah, both listed by the World Health Organization. These viruses cause non-specific ailments similar to COVID-19 or the flu but can progress to more severe symptoms and even death. By predicting mutations in these viruses, EVEscape allows researchers to create a watch list of changes that could endanger existing therapies.
In conclusion, EVEscape offers a powerful tool to predict alterations and mutations in viruses like COVID-19, aiding in pandemic planning, vaccine development, and the fight against other potentially devastating viruses. With its ability to accurately forecast changes, EVEscape has the potential to shape future healthcare strategies and improve our response to emerging viral threats.
