Artificial Intelligence (AI) is expected to bring significant benefits to high-income economies, boosting productivity and innovation, according to a survey conducted by the World Economic Forum (WEF). However, concerns have been raised about the potential for AI to exacerbate inequality. The survey, known as the Chief Economists Outlook, reveals that leading economists are more optimistic about the advantages of AI in wealthier countries compared to developing economies. The economists also predict that geo-economic fragmentation will accelerate this year, as the global economy faces challenges from financial conditions and geopolitical tensions.
The majority of those surveyed anticipate that AI will have economically significant productivity gains in high-income nations within the next five years. However, opinions are divided regarding the impact of generative AI on trust, both in high-income and low-income economies. While the economists foresee improvements in production efficiency and innovation as benefits of AI, the effect on standards of living remains uncertain.
The survey highlights a discrepancy in expected outcomes among different income groups regarding the influence of generative AI on productivity over the next year. Approximately 79% of respondents anticipate an increase in output efficiency in high-income economies, while only 38% predict the same for low-income economies. However, the report emphasizes that all respondents acknowledged the expectation of long-term and far-reaching effects of AI on the global economy, with no one dismissing the potential productivity benefits. In fact, the most optimistic scenario examined in the survey suggests that widespread AI deployment could raise global output by up to 30% by the end of the century.
Regarding regions poised for significant productivity growth due to increased AI adoption, the economists identified the United States, China, Europe, and East Asia as the areas expected to benefit the most in the next three years. The survey projects a potential up to 5% increase in annual revenue for the banking and pharmaceutical industries. Additionally, it anticipates that around three-quarters of AI-enabled productivity gains across various sectors will be facilitated by advancements in research and development, customer services, marketing and sales, and software engineering.
Despite the positive economic predictions associated with AI, concerns persist regarding its potential implications for jobs, inequality, and society at large. The surveyed economists raised anxieties about risks such as automation, job displacement, and degradation. In the context of employment in low-income economies, nearly three-quarters of chief economists do not foresee a net positive impact, while 17% remain uncertain. In other words, the majority of economists expect job displacement to occur, as highlighted in the report.
This WEF survey demonstrates both optimism and caution regarding the economic impact of AI. While economists acknowledge the potential for productivity gains and innovation in high-income countries, there is also recognition that the technology could contribute to inequality. As AI continues to advance and reshape the global economy, it becomes crucial to address the concerns surrounding job displacement and work towards creating a more inclusive and equitable future.
