Scientists Unveil ‘Doom Calculator’: Death-Predicting AI Sparks Ethical Debate
Scientists have introduced a groundbreaking artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm called the doom calculator, which boasts an impressive accuracy rate of over 75% in predicting an individual’s likelihood of dying within four years.
Dubbed life2vec, the AI algorithm functions similarly to ChatGPT but without direct user interaction. Researchers from Denmark and the United States recently published their pioneering project in the Nature Computational Science online journal.
Using data from more than 6 million individuals in Denmark, life2vec analyzed various factors such as age, health, education, employment, income, and life events. The Danish government provided this extensive dataset to facilitate the AI’s training, as reported by USA Today.
Life2vec was trained to process information about people’s lives presented in the form of sentences. By learning from sentences like In September 2012, Francisco received 20,000 Danish kroner as a guard at a castle in Elsinore or During her third year at secondary boarding school, Hermione followed five elective classes, the AI developed the ability to construct individual human life trajectories.
Lead author Sune Lehmann, a professor of networks and complexity science at the Technical University of Denmark, metaphorically described human life as a giant long sentence encompassing numerous events.
Impressively, the AI achieved a predictive accuracy rate of 78%, correctly identifying individuals who had passed away by 2020. Importantly, none of the study participants were informed about their predicted death dates, according to The Science Times.
The AI algorithm revealed several factors associated with earlier mortality, including mental health diagnoses, male gender, and skilled professions. Conversely, leadership roles at work and higher income were correlated with longer lifespans. Life2vec also demonstrated its versatility in predicting various aspects, from personalities to decisions regarding international relocations.
While the doom calculator shows immense potential, it is not yet suitable for public use, and the associated data remains confidential to ensure privacy protection. The researchers are actively exploring ways to share the findings more openly, with a priority on safeguarding individual privacy.
Tina Eliassi-Rad, a collaborator and computer science professor at Northeastern University in Boston, cautioned against using tools like life2vec to predict individual outcomes. She emphasized their utility in tracking societal trends rather than foreseeing singular futures, acknowledging that real people have hearts and minds.
Notably, Sune Lehmann emphasized that the AI model should not be used by an insurance company, because the whole idea of insurance…we can kind of share this burden. He also expressed concerns that major tech companies with vast amounts of data might already be leveraging similar models to make predictions about individuals, as reported by The Sun.
The ethical implications of AI in forecasting mortality are considerable. Art Caplan, a bioethics professor at New York University Langone Medical Center, anticipates consumers seeking their forecasted data, potentially leading to challenges and conflicts over third-party access to sensitive information.
Caplan acknowledges the potential benefits of preventing deaths but raises concerns about the algorithm’s impact on removing life’s uncertainties, which may not necessarily be advantageous.
In conclusion, the doom calculator AI algorithm has sparked significant ethical debate. While it demonstrates remarkable predictive accuracy in determining an individual’s chances of dying within four years, caution must be exercised regarding the use of such tools for personal predictions. The researchers involved emphasize the need for privacy protection and urge against insurance companies or other entities employing the algorithm. As this technology progresses, maintaining a balance between benefit and ethical considerations will be crucial.
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