For a quarter of a century following the end of the Cold War, democracies across the world have seen a time of relative peace and have enjoyed the benefits of the “peace dividend” – additional resources shifted away from defence and instead invested in schools and hospitals. However, the recent conflicts in Ukraine and the growing assertiveness of China have changed the global climate with more major nations investing in defence once again.
The United States, UK, and Australia, who are part of the “Aukus” alliance, have recently unveiled plans to launch a nuclear-powered submarine fleet in the Pacific. Britain, meanwhile, has followed France, Germany, Poland, Japan, and other countries by significantly increasing defence spending. While these nations hope that this additional investment will prevent future wars and maintain peace, it places a strain on their resources.
Britain’s defence secretary wanted to increase spending by far more than was eventually approved, with the UK committing to a two-year, £5bn bump. This was on top of the £24bn boost announced by Boris Johnson as prime minister in 2020, although even this increase puts them in the minority of just seven nations that meet the NATO requirement of dedicating 2% of GDP to defence.
Other nations have been willing to invest more, even from a starting point of lower defence budget ratios. Germany has allocated €100b to a special defence fund, while France has promised a 40% defence increase by 2024-30, totalling €118bn. Poland is also looking to reach 4% of GDP in terms of defence spending in 2021.
Nato’s recent report showed a collective real-term increase of 2.2% for most of its member states. The US was more hesitant in its Global Combatant Command (GCC) spending, but is likely to move forward in 2023 with a stronger increase. Russia and China, despite their well-documented actions, still increased their expenditure.
Western governments are beginning to recognize that the sophistication of modern weaponry outweighs the reallocation of defence resources to social programs. The Ukraine conflict showed that traditional tactics aren’t obsolete, making the armament of modern states one rife with complexity and expense.
To confront these problems, many countries are now pooling resources to share technology, intel, and procurement techniques. The aforementioned Aukus alliance is meant to be an alliance with three participating countries of equal cost-sharing of technology and information; further, the EU is providing €1bn in munitions and reimbursing member countries for munitions sent to Ukraine. The sharing of information between democracies has become a priority.
Ultimately, rearmament has become a necessary evil. Defence as a percentage of public spending has decreased since the late 80s, and this shift has allowed countries to expand their welfare programs without raising taxes. Now, governments must explain to their citizens the implications of the renewed military build-up.
The Person
Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, has been a key part of the increased defence spending seen in Europe. Since taking office in 2020, his government has increased defence spending by £24bn and committed to a two-year £5bn boost. Johnson has been pushing for further increases in defence spending as he works to build a UK that is ready for 21st Century Conflicts.
The Company
The Aukus alliance, officially named “The United States, United Kingdom and Australia Strategic Partnership,” is an international defence partnership formed in the wake of the ever-changing global climate. The alliance is committed to pooling their resources to create a joint nuclear-powered submarine fleet in the Pacific. Furthermore, all three countries are also cooperating on hypersonic missiles, AI, and quantum computing to make sure they are properly fortified in case of a serious conflict. With the pooling of resources, all three countries hope to be able to maintain a strong presence in the Pacific Rim region.
