Disinformation Threatens Global Elections: Strategies to Counteract
As the world prepares for the 2024 elections, the specter of disinformation looms large. It has been declared a top societal threat by the World Economic Forum, and major news organizations warn that it poses an unprecedented danger to democracies worldwide. While some question the impact of disinformation on election outcomes, evidence suggests otherwise.
Misinformation and disinformation are often used interchangeably. However, a 2023 study clarified that misinformation refers to false and misleading content, while disinformation specifically refers to intentional misinformation. Academic experts widely agree on these definitions.
The influence of disinformation on elections can be seen in numerous examples. During the 2020 US presidential election, a significant number of Republicans endorsed the false conspiracy theory that the election was stolen from Donald Trump. This demonstrates how the dissemination of disinformation can shape beliefs and lead to potentially damaging consequences for democracy.
Furthermore, research suggests that mis- and disinformation can sway election results, particularly when the margin of victory is narrow. Studies have shown that voters who were not exposed to fake news about Hillary Clinton during the 2016 election were more likely to vote for her, compared to those who believed at least two false headlines. This indicates that targeted disinformation campaigns can have a significant impact on voter behavior.
Micro-targeting, a practice that tailors messages to specific audiences based on their characteristics, has been shown to influence decision-making and voting intentions. By using large language models, it is possible to craft micro-targeted ads that can persuade a considerable number of individuals.
Moreover, the impact of disinformation extends beyond election outcomes. It erodes public trust and participation in the electoral process, undermining the very foundation of democracy.
So, how can we protect ourselves from the dangers of disinformation? One promising strategy is prebunking, which aims to prevent false beliefs from taking hold in the first place. Prebunking involves warning people about potential false narratives or propaganda tactics and providing explanations as to why they should be cautious.
By familiarizing individuals with the markers of misinforming rhetoric, such as scapegoating or false dichotomies, they can develop the ability to identify and combat disinformation. It is akin to a medical vaccine, where a weakened dose of the infectious agent (disinformation) is encountered and refuted to confer protection.
For instance, an online game developed for the Department of Homeland Security used pineapple pizza as a way to teach people about foreign influence techniques during the 2020 presidential election. By showcasing how disinformation can turn seemingly harmless issues into tools for inciting division and chaos, participants improved their recognition of these tactics.
Social media platforms have also embraced prebunking by sending out warnings to users about potential false claims. Twitter, for example, alerted millions of users about fraudulent election-related narratives, armed them with factual information, and inspired confidence in the electoral process. This approach has shown positive results in improving discernment between true and false claims, reducing belief in election fraud, and enhancing confidence in the integrity of elections.
Inoculation through prebunking is a free speech-empowering intervention that can be implemented on a global scale. Just as individuals can learn to spot the markers of disinformation, we can collectively develop herd immunity to the tactics of disinformers and propagandists.
While governments and tech companies can play a role in building mental immunity, it is also essential for individuals to take responsibility for their media literacy. By studying and understanding the markers accompanying misleading rhetoric, we can become more adept at identifying and countering disinformation.
The fight against disinformation is crucial for the future of our democracy. It requires a concerted effort from various stakeholders, including individuals, governments, and tech companies, to ensure that our elections remain free and fair. With vigilance, education, and a commitment to truth, we can safeguard the integrity of our democratic processes and protect the fundamental values upon which they are built.
