Artificial intelligence (AI) has long been a source of concern when it comes to job displacement. However, according to MIT economics professor David Autor, these fears may be misplaced. In a recently released paper titled Applying AI to Rebuild Middle Class Jobs, Autor argues that AI has the potential to actually improve the quality of jobs and benefit the middle class.
Autor points out that predictions of a future where AI replaces all jobs are unlikely to come true. Instead, he believes that a shrinking labor force and declining birth rates will lead to a labor shortage, ensuring that there will still be a demand for human workers. The question then becomes what these available jobs will entail.
According to Autor, the emergence of AI as an assistive tool can help undo some of the damage caused by the Information Age. He argues that AI can extend the relevance, reach, and value of human expertise for a larger set of workers. By providing decision support in real-time and enabling workers with necessary foundational training to perform higher-stakes decision-making tasks, AI can empower workers and reduce the power imbalance that currently exists.
Autor cites the example of Nurse Practitioners (NPs) as evidence of how this can work. NPs are registered nurses with additional master’s degrees that allow them to perform tests and administer services that were previously reserved for physicians. The number of NPs in the US has nearly tripled between 2011 and 2022, and this number is expected to grow further. Autor attributes this growth to the use of information technology, specifically electronic medical records, which have helped NPs make better decisions.
Several studies have also shown the positive impact of AI in fields like computer programming and writing. Tools like GitHub’s Copilot and OpenAI’s ChatGPT have made workers more productive without eliminating the need for expertise.
Autor is clear that AI won’t eliminate the need for expertise but it can help workers with some foundation in a task level up. This, he argues, can improve the quality of jobs for those without college degrees, reduce earning inequality, and lower the cost of healthcare, education, and legal advice.
While this outcome is not inevitable, Autor believes it is technologically plausible, economically coherent, and morally compelling. He suggests that instead of worrying about what AI will do to us, we should focus on what we want it to do for us.
In conclusion, while concerns about AI displacing jobs persist, MIT economist David Autor argues that AI has the potential to save the middle class. By empowering workers with decision support tools and extending the value of human expertise, AI can improve job quality and reduce inequality. While the future of AI’s impact on the workforce is still uncertain, it is clear that there is room for AI to benefit the middle class and contribute to a more equitable society.
