My friend Patrick Lloyd who is eager to learn about Artificial Intelligence ChatGPT, sent me Tasmania’s annual maximum temperatures from 1882 as a result of a download from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology website. Patrick wanted to use this data to investigate global warming in Tasmania.
I imported these values into my statistical program and created a scatterplot with a fitted regression line, Chart 1. The results showed that maximum temperatures had cooled since the beginning of the century and hit its lowest point in 1950 and had been on the rise since then. The regression equation showed that maximum temperatures had cooled annually at a rate of 0.0051 degrees Celsius, which is approximately 0.5 C per 100 years.
However, I thought the official recording of temperatures in Tasmania (being chart 2) would be more accurate than just an average of all the data collected. This chart showed that temperatures had been cooling since the early 1900s and ascended rapidly after the 1960s. Chart 1 and Chart 2 showed different trends, although they both showed cooling of temperatures until the year 1960.
I was concerned that the automatic weather station currently at Larapuna (Eddystone Point, station number 092045) may be recording higher temperatures than if we used a mercury thermometer that had been used before this station became automatic. Chart 3 showing the average maximum temperature of the location with both types of thermometers in place indicated that indeed, temperatures had increased by more than 1 degree Celsius since 1997.
To move forward with the reconstruction of maximum temperatures in Tasmania accurately, I have encouraged Patrick to investigate the implications of a change from a mercury thermometer to a probe in an automatic weather station across the Tasmanian region. I have also requested him to make available the parallel data which the Bureau has kept largely confidential.
ChatGPT, through Patrick, sent me the scatterplot for Larapuna, and I plan to conduct further research over this series of blog posts in order to objectively assess the most accurate historic temperature reconstruction for Tasmania. Individuals interested in following this journey should consider subscribing to my website and clicking the ‘Temperature Trends’ box to get regular updates.
The photo featured on this article shows Patrick and me standing in front of a weather station in Tewantin, Queensland.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM) is a government body that is responsible for all weather observation, analysis and forecasting in Australia. The ABM’s mission is to collect, analyse and produce weather and climate data, reliable and timely weather and climate information, research on atmosphere and climate information and services for a range of customers. It also provides advice on the practical use of weather and climate-related information and sets standards for the verification of weather services.
Patrick Lloyd is a committed weather enthusiast and AI enthusiast eager to learn about ChatGPT and its potential applications. He is a regular reader of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s website and obtained the maximum temperatures for Tasmania since 1882 via the ChatGPT. Patrick is working with me to understand the global warming trends in the Tasmanian region, and we plan to use the data he has collected to develop a more accurate representation of the historical temperature in Tasmania.
