Title: Trilateral Cooperation in East Asia: The Future of US-South Korea-Japan Alliance
The strategic landscape in East Asia is experiencing significant transformations, prompting leaders from South Korea, the United States, and Japan to pledge all-around trilateral cooperation. This landmark commitment was made during a summit held at Camp David on August 18. The deepening partnership between these nations has been catalyzed by various geopolitical shifts, including North Korea’s missile provocations, escalating tensions between the United States and China, as well as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In response to these changes, the Biden administration seeks to solidify the trilateral alliance between South Korea, the United States, and Japan. The aim is to institutionalize their cooperative structure, ensuring uninterrupted collaboration even amidst changes in leadership within their respective countries. China, which previously benefited from tensions between South Korea and Japan, has aggressively criticized the first exclusive tripartite summit at Camp David as it can no longer revel in its strategic advantage.
The success of institutionalizing this trilateral cooperation depends on two significant variables. The first variable pertains to uncertainties in international politics, primarily the reactions from China, North Korea, and Russia towards the trilateral cooperation system and how effectively South Korea, the United States, and Japan can address them. It is crucial for South Korea to convey concerns to the United States regarding potential economic retaliation from China, similar to the dispute over the deployment of the Thaad antimissile system. Additionally, the Japanese government under Fumio Kishida must respond proactively to South Korea’s reconciliatory efforts to avoid any hindrances to the institutionalization of this three-way partnership.
The second variable involves changes in domestic politics within the three countries, particularly South Korea. President Yoon Suk Yeol’s low approval rating may reflect public disapproval of his attempts to improve relations with Japan and strengthen the trilateral cooperation. Overcoming these obstacles requires the governments to demonstrate tangible outcomes to their respective populations as early as possible. Establishing an office for cooperation in Seoul, as proposed by some experts, could facilitate the implementation of the Camp David agreements, allowing Korea to assume a key role in the alliance.
In addition to bolstering security through strengthened collaboration, generating visible economic and technological benefits from this trilateral cooperation is essential. The three countries should strive for more than mere information sharing on core supplies and aim for common responses to challenges. Enhanced cooperation in areas such as artificial intelligence and technological development, as well as collaboration in setting technological standards, will greatly contribute to Korea’s future capabilities. Such results will foster public understanding of the Yoon administration’s forward-thinking foreign policy.
Another aspect to consider is the empowerment of women through the trilateral agreement. By increasing female participation and roles, Korean women can experience the benefits of this new trilateral relationship. Moreover, meticulous preparations for the first trilateral Global Leadership Youth Summit to be held in Busan early next year will allow the youth of these three nations to experience the advantages of closer ties.
The future institutionalization of trilateral cooperation hinges on the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election in November. While Korea’s parliamentary elections will be held in April, these results will not affect the continuity of the government’s policy since a change in governing power is not expected. However, a potential reelection of Donald Trump could upend all foreign policies of the Biden administration, including the upgraded partnership with Korea and Japan. Consequently, only time will reveal the final outcome, as predictions regarding election results lie beyond human capacity.
In conclusion, trilateral cooperation between the United States, South Korea, and Japan holds immense potential for shaping the future of East Asia. With careful management of geopolitical uncertainties and internal political dynamics, along with tangible results and the inclusion of diverse perspectives, this alliance can flourish and forge a path towards regional stability, security, and prosperity.
