The Unknown Future of AI: Problems with Tech Prophets Influencing AI Policy

The future of artificial intelligence (AI) is uncertain, but that hasn’t stopped some in Silicon Valley from making bold predictions about its potential impact. While some see AI as a force for good that can usher in an era of infinite compassion and knowledge, others fear a doomsday scenario where rogue superintelligence leads to human extinction. The problem with these predictions is that no one knows when, or even if, artificial general intelligence will emerge. This poses a challenge for policymakers looking to regulate AI risks. If the tech prophets hold sway, policymakers could be encouraged to focus on unlikely apocalypse scenarios or utopian visions instead of more immediate risks related to bias, misinformation, and societal disruption.
It’s not just policymakers who could be impacted, either: researchers working on present-day AI risks might get displaced by a disproportionate emphasis on long-term risks. While it’s important to address long-term risks, there is currently a lack of consensus on how to accurately estimate them. Meanwhile, researchers are already hard at work dealing with risks associated with AI models that are deployed every day and used by millions of people. It’s important not to overlook their contributions, as they are making a significant impact on the present and near future of AI.