The Last AI Boom Didn’t Cause Job Losses, Should We Relax?

A new research paper by economists at the European Central Bank, Spain’s central bank, and Oxford and Pittsburgh universities shows that the last big leap in AI did not result in a reduction of jobs. The study looked at the job market in several European countries between 2011 and 2019, which was the period when deep learning emerged as a powerful way to automate tasks. Researchers used two established methods for measuring how vulnerable professions are to AI-powered automation and examined the tasks workers do, comparing them with the capabilities of algorithms. They then cross-referenced that information with survey data on EU workers to determine the number of people leaving or joining different occupations. The headline result was that the industries where AI could be most useful did not see any job losses, and for more highly skilled jobs vulnerable to AI, such as white-collar office work, there was actually an increase in the number of employed workers. However, it is still too early to predict the impact of new generative AI technologies like ChatGPT, which may have an entirely different effect on jobs to what came before. While some copywriters have already lost their jobs to generative AI tools, it is worth remembering that these tools are still unreliable co-workers, as they make up facts, reinforce biases, and can misbehave. Nonetheless, economists believe that automation can increase demand for jobs overall, as shown by recent studies.