Last year, Generative AI made significant strides with the launch of DALL-E, Midjourney, Stable Diffusion, and eventually ChatGPT. ChatGPT gained a lot of attention for being the first AI tool that laypeople could use and see results first-hand. It gained one million users within five days of launch and sparked the narrative that it could disrupt Google Search. Some predicted that if Google pivoted to a similar model, there would be no way for them to monetize by selling ads. However, experts believe that it is challenging to unseat Google, and there are several reasons why.
Firstly, there are three types of search queries on Google, and it holds 90% of the market share in search. It is the default search engine for nearly every browser and phone. Secondly, most websites optimize for Google Search, and it would be a difficult task to optimize for another like Bing. Thirdly, Google has led the way in using machine learning and AI to improve its search engine for many years, and it has 15 products with more than 500 million users, six of which have more than two billion users. It also has showcased exciting generative AI features to produce articles in Docs based on a user’s bullet points and images and videos to illustrate presentations in Slides.
While Generative AI is evolving rapidly, experts believe it is sustaining technology that will improve Google’s products rather than a disruptive one that will replace them. Generative AI is probabilistic and not deterministic, which means it’s a statistical model that works out what pieces of language likely go together in different contexts. Until there’s a way to verify its answers, it’s unlikely to become the de facto destination for search.
In conclusion, it seems unlikely that Generative AI will be a threat to unseating Google Search as it continues to lead the way in using machine learning and AI to improve its services. The sustained efforts Google has put into improving its search engine and other services, along with its distribution advantage, make it challenging for newcomers to break through.
