MetService Faces Criticism Over Inaccurate Forecast of Auckland Floods
MetService, New Zealand’s national meteorological agency, is facing criticism for its inability to accurately forecast the extreme rainfall that led to deadly flooding in Auckland in January. An internal review conducted by the agency revealed that its weather modelling systems failed to predict the amount of rainfall and the severity of the flooding caused by the deluge.
MetService’s CEO, Stephen Hunt, defended the agency, stating that meteorological models rely on past data to forecast weather patterns. However, the Auckland floods witnessed an unprecedented amount of moisture in the atmosphere, making it extremely challenging to predict. The review also assessed the agency’s performance during Cyclone Gabrielle, which caused widespread devastation in parts of the Upper North Island in February. Hunt mentioned that the forecasting models performed well for the cyclone, and meteorologists were able to predict much of what occurred.
Hunt explained that the Auckland floods were unique as the weather behaved differently from historical patterns. A narrow and lengthy channel of moisture-laden air was funneled over Auckland, making it difficult to accurately predict the weather phenomena and its exact impact. He clarified that it wasn’t just MetService models that struggled with these predictions; all models faced similar challenges. In such cases, intervention from meteorologists becomes essential to modify the forecast based on their expertise.
The CEO highlighted that the three main weather modelling regimes in the world, originating from Europe, the UK, and the US, provide the foundation for global weather modelling. Localized models are then developed based on these regimes. However, the increasingly unique and extreme weather events observed worldwide, influenced by climate change, pose challenges to the traditional nature of these established weather models.
Hunt recognized the necessity of adapting MetService’s systems to cater to New Zealand’s changing climate conditions and to provide the best service possible. He acknowledged that climate change affects traditional weather patterns, resulting in more frequent and intense extreme weather events. As a result, the agency must continuously learn, evolve, and respond by improving its systems in terms of modelling, forecasting, alerting, and warning.
One lesson learned from the Auckland floods was the need to enhance the agency’s alerting service. Additionally, MetService is exploring the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into future weather models. While AI and machine learning already play a role in weather modelling, the next generation of models is expected to be heavily informed by these capabilities, potentially leading to improved quality, fidelity, and integrity of the modelling outputs.
In conclusion, MetService’s internal review sheds light on the challenges faced by meteorological agencies in accurately forecasting unprecedented weather events. The agency recognizes the need to adapt its systems to meet the demands of a changing climate and enhance its services to better serve the people of New Zealand. Through continuous improvement and advancements in technology, it aims to provide reliable and timely weather forecasts in the face of evolving weather patterns.
