Prabowo Subianto, the Defense Minister of Indonesia, is currently leading the early, unofficial tallies of the country’s presidential race. These initial counts suggest that Subianto holds a commanding lead and is on track to potentially claim victory in the three-way race. The 72-year-old candidate has been linked to the brutal period of dictatorship that ended over 25 years ago, during which he served as a special forces commander connected to allegations of torture and disappearances. However, Subianto denies these allegations.
According to early unofficial tallies by Indonesian polling agencies, Subianto has garnered between 57% and 59% of the votes, with over 80% of votes counted in sampled polling places. These quick counts are based on the actual vote count at a sample of polling stations throughout Indonesia. While the official count may take up to a month to complete, these quick counts have been accurate in predicting the results of previous presidential elections since direct voting began in 2004.
To secure victory without a runoff against his two rivals—former provincial governors Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo—Subianto will need to obtain more than 50% of the total votes cast as well as at least 20% in each of the country’s provinces. Subianto is expected to address his enthusiastic supporters at a packed Jakarta sports hall in the evening.
The next president of Indonesia, who succeeds President Joko Widodo, will inherit a growing economy and ambitious infrastructure projects, including the costly transition of the nation’s capital from Jakarta to the island of Borneo. The outcome of this election holds significance for the United States and China, as Indonesia possesses a large domestic market, abundant natural resources like nickel and palm oil, and diplomatic influence in Southeast Asia.
Widodo’s ascent from a riverside slum to the presidency highlights the vibrancy of Indonesia’s democracy within a region marked by authoritarian regimes. However, the presence of a leading candidate linked to a former dictator, coupled with Widodo’s son being on the ballot, has raised concerns among some observers about the erosion of democracy.
The election, which took place on February 14, involved a complex logistical operation across Indonesia’s 17,000 islands inhabited by approximately 270 million people. Beyond the presidential race, tens of thousands of candidates vied for about 20,000 national, provincial, and district parliamentary posts in one of the world’s largest elections.
The voters interviewed expressed hopes for a leader who can bring greater prosperity to a country where nearly one-tenth of the population still lives in poverty. The results of this election will shape the future of Indonesia and have ramifications for the nation’s economy, regional influence, and democratic development.
