OpenAI’s ChatGPT app has been experiencing a slowdown in downloads, indicating that it may not pose a significant threat to Google’s dominance in the search engine market. This analysis comes from Bank of America Securities, which found that app downloads for ChatGPT and Microsoft Bing have slowed down in recent weeks, according to Sensor Tower data.
In June, ChatGPT downloads on iPhones in the U.S. dropped by 38% compared to the previous month. Bing app downloads, which include a ChatGPT-based chatbot, also saw a 38% decline in June. On the other hand, Google’s search engine market share has slightly increased to over 92%, as reported by SimilarWeb data. Microsoft’s Bing, powered by OpenAI’s ChatGPT, accounted for about 2.8% of the market, experiencing a 40 basis points decline year-over-year.
The dwindling attention towards ChatGPT and similar large language models (LLMs) highlights the investment risk for companies like Google and Microsoft. These tech giants have invested substantial amounts of money into the idea that recent advancements in artificial intelligence could lead to a next-generation search engine capable of challenging Google’s position. However, if the adoption of ChatGPT is already slowing down, alternative applications for LLMs, such as new advertiser tools, may need to be explored.
According to Bank of America analysts, concerns surrounding LLMs for Google search have shifted from market share risk to monetization risk. While Google’s search share appears to remain healthy, there may be less urgency for integrating LLM (chat) results into commercial queries. This implies that Google’s dominance in search may not be seriously threatened by ChatGPT and similar technologies.
The ChatGPT app was released in May and is currently only available for iPhones. However, Bank of America analysts believe that the upcoming release of an OpenAI app for Android could potentially boost adoption.
In addition to the app and Bing search engine, users can access the ChatGPT chatbot through its website. Bank of America analysts estimate that visits to ChatGPT have decreased by approximately 11% monthly to just over 51 million visitors per week. Despite this, it still only accounts for about 2% of Google’s estimated web traffic.
The slowdown in ChatGPT’s adoption raises questions about its ability to challenge Google’s dominant position in search. As a result, companies may need to explore other potential applications for LLMs, while Google may be less motivated to integrate LLM results into commercial queries. The release of an OpenAI app for Android could potentially attract more users to ChatGPT, but its impact remains to be seen.
In conclusion, ChatGPT’s slowing downloads indicate that it may not pose a significant threat to Google’s position as the search engine leader. This highlights the potential investment risks for companies like Google and Microsoft, as well as the need to find alternative applications for large language models.
